Geopolitics: South Africa and Third World Pressure

As the map shows, South Africa is a substantial sized state on the southern tip of the African continent.



The unique aspect of South Africa stems from it being the only place on the African continent that the Europeans attempted to colonise with their own people. A significant percentage of the South African population are whites, mostly of British or Dutch descent, but also some Germans (who controlled German East Africa, now Namibia, to the northwest of South Africa).

This meant that the economy of South Africa enjoyed the priviledged status of being part of the Western world...and correspondingly became disproportionately wealthy compared to the rest of Africa.

But there is another powerful result in this.

South Africa is enduring the same demographic transition that has wrought it's work on the West: very soon, South Africa's fertility rate will drop below replacement level. Furthermore, due to out migration (mainly whites fleeing what they perceive as persecution and anti-white crime) the population of South Africa is already in absolute decline.

All this makes it the only African state with a westernised economy, and with the potential for a long term declining population. This is noteworthy, because most of Africa is facing a rapid population rise that will place enormous pressure on the lands ability to produce. In fact, Africa (and the Indian sub-continent) are geared towards being enormous humanitarian burdens on the globe for decades to come.

South Africa gives the African continent an indigenous nation to provide a stable, secure future, with a developed economy, and declining population to absorb migrants from other parts of Africa. History has shown that significant out migration is necessary for nations to develop....the only alternative pathway is major birth control in the way that China has demonstrated. Africa is not at all following China's example and is a serious humanitarian time bomb. Waves of immigrants, in the millions, will work their way to Europe and the United States from Africa in the next few decades. This will place enormous social strain on places where the traditionally dominating ethnic groups shall rapidly find themselves minorities in their own lands, with no land in the world to call home. To avoid such a clash, two strategies are being developed by those in the know:

1. The push for tolerance of all peoples, to prepare the western nations for their guests that are soon to be on their way. This has been a strong social push that is gaining momentum.

2. The development of the foreign lands, of which South Africa is a shining example.

Both strategies are necessary for the minimisation of loss of life due to famine and water shortages that shall be hitting our world in the coming decades. Water shortages in the Indian sub-continent, for example, are already stretched, but due to climate change this process is most likely to accelerate. I think an estimate of a decade or two to disasterous water shortages in India is realistic, perhaps optimistic. The world had better be prepared for very large numbers of outmigrants. Or have these places so developed they undergo their own demographic decline. One or the other.